“Making predictions is difficult, especially about the future“-Yogi Berra
“Experts should always be ignored“- Warren Buffett
Warning: This does not follow my usual newsletter format. Today we are embracing the chaos and having fun with wild predictions.
We’re entering the season of annual prediction posts. You know them… they confidently claim “artificial intelligence will change everything” or “sustainability will be key” and other shocking insights that have apparently been true every year since 2010.
So instead of adding to the pile, I decided to accept the absurdity of the predictions and go for a fully loaded moonshot. Here are 21 very specific, probably wrong, but completely measurable predictions for 2025. Their design goals are simple: if even one were to materialize, it would mark a fascinating shift in the way we travel.
Why 21? Because as Linus Pauling said, ‘The best way to have good ideas is to have a lot of them.’The best way to correctly predict the future is to make predictions that are specific enough to tip the odds in your favor.
Before we dive in, I want to thank Propelik Sponsor this newsletter
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Now, here are Travel Tech Essentialist’s predictions for 2025…
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Three cities will launch “Visitor Free Zones” open only to verified residents and their guests, creating a secondary market for visitor passes worth more than $50 million
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A luxury hotel group will replace points with NFT-based “membership tokens”, with secondary market trading volume reaching more than $100 million
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A major cruise line will announce a permanent residency program to sell more than 1,000 “cabins for life” as primary residences
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An Asian travel company is to acquire a European OTA with a market capitalization of over €2 billion.
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A travel company will be the first to adopt “empathic pricing”, where prices fluctuate based on customer circumstances, not just needs, increasing revenue by 25% while improving satisfaction scores
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Two competing airline alliances will merge their loyalty programs into a blockchain-based currency
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A business travel platform will launch “reverse bidding”, employees can save 50% of the budget, and employee expenses will reach 100 million US dollars
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An airline will launch a subscription service that bundles flights + workspace access, reaching 2 million subscribers
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A travel company will launch “Unforgettable Insurance” – guaranteeing an unforgettable experience or your money back – to cover $100 million worth of bookings
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At least one major European city will launch a combined digital nomad visa + affordable housing program, attracting more than 30,000 participants
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Travel tech funding in India/SEA will surpass US travel tech funding for the first time
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Major airports will convert 30% of parking spaces into “micro-hotels” that will generate higher revenue per square foot than parking lots
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A major airline will launch “social seating” where passengers can bid to sit next to interesting people (celebrities, experts, etc.), creating $50 million in new revenue
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A startup founded in Saudi Arabia or the UAE in 2025 with fewer than 50 employees will be valued at $2 billion by the end of the year, making it the most valuable travel startup launched in 2025
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A major hotel brand will eliminate star ratings and replace them with experience or lifestyle categories, increasing average room rates by 20%
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A university will launch a “Semester Without Borders” program to provide guaranteed housing/workspace in 4 cities around the world, enrolling more than 1,000 students
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The first fully autonomous hotel (zero staff, using robots for cleaning and maintenance) will achieve higher NPS guest satisfaction scores than traditional luxury hotels
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The travel advisor marketplace platform will reach $1 billion in bookings and have over 10,000 independent advisors, proving that the “creator economy” model works in luxury travel
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The first travel company will eliminate traditional customer service and replace it with artificial intelligence + manual verification, reducing customer service costs by 85% while achieving an upgrade rate of <1%
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A luxury hotel will move its entire 200+ room property to 4-hour booking windows, achieving a 40% improvement in RevPAR over the previous year
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The first “anti-resort” is about to open, charging high prices (more than US$2,000/night) for basic accommodation in remote areas, with an occupancy rate of 90%
I’d love to hear what resonates with you. Let’s play a game. Please vote for…
If you’d like, you can also vote in the comments below (i.e. Thoughts: #18, #20; Wants: #5, #6, #8).
Let’s see what patterns our collective crazy wisdom yields! If these moon landing predictions spark your thoughts or make you think, “Actually, I’m doing something like this…” hit reply or leave a comment. Hopefully we can turn this thought experiment into a real conversation about the opportunities for category creation in travel.
What happens next? I will analyze the results and share follow-up articles on the most popular predictions. Plus, I’ll be connecting with industry players who might be able to turn these crazy ideas into reality. stay tuned!
Until next time,
Mauricio
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